Georgian political analyst, Doctor of International Relations and professor Tornike Sharashenidze has outlined key trends shaping the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus, focusing on the roles of major external actors and the prospects for Euro-Atlantic integration in the region.

According to the expert, Russia is gradually losing influence in the South Caucasus. This trend is particularly evident in Azerbaijan, where Turkey’s presence continues to grow. Sharashenidze noted that Ankara is becoming an increasingly influential player, strengthening both economic and military ties in the region.

Speaking about Armenia, the analyst highlighted contradictions in the country’s foreign policy. Despite its aspirations for European integration, Armenia remains heavily dependent on Russia economically and militarily, making any strategic reorientation significantly more difficult.

Sharashenidze also expressed skepticism about the “TRIPP” project, pointing to major challenges such as difficult terrain, high implementation costs, and regional instability, including potential spillover from a conflict involving Iran.

Commenting on Georgia’s foreign policy, the expert described Tbilisi’s approach toward Russia as pragmatic, while maintaining a firm stance on the issues of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. At the same time, relations with the European Union have become strained following recent elections and government statements about suspending the EU membership application process.

Nevertheless, the visa-free regime with the EU remains one of Georgia’s key achievements and continues to play an important role for its citizens.

On security issues, Sharashenidze emphasized that Georgia’s NATO membership is unlikely in the near future due to the presence of Russian military bases on its territory. He also stressed that the United States remains the only power capable of effectively counterbalancing the Russian threat to Georgia.

In conclusion, the analyst noted that NATO’s future will largely depend on U.S. policy. In particular, a potential decrease in Washington’s engagement in the alliance under Donald Trump could affect the balance of power, increasing the need for Europe to strengthen its own defense capabilities.

#GEORGIA

#INTERVIEW

02.05.2026 10:19