Armenia Energy Diversification: Testing the Limits of Dependence on Russian Gas

Russian natural gas supplies
to Armenia were temporarily suspended on September 15 due to scheduled
maintenance work on a section of the main gas pipeline in Russia. The work is
expected to continue until September 25.
The suspension was announced
by Gazprom Armenia. The interruption involves a ten-day halt in the
transportation of gas through the North Caucasus–Transcaucasia pipeline, which
supplies Russian gas to Armenia via Georgia.
During the maintenance period,
Armenia plans to meet domestic demand using available natural gas reserves and
by increasing gas imports from Iran. No disruptions in supplies to consumers
are expected.
Despite the Armenian
government’s policy of diversifying energy supplies, Russian gas continues to
dominate the country’s import structure. Last year, approximately 82% of
Armenia’s imported natural gas came from Russia.
Therefore, even a temporary
interruption in supplies is significant for Armenia’s energy system,
particularly given that natural gas is used not only by households and industry
but also in electricity generation.
Against this backdrop, the
availability of domestic reserves and the possibility of increasing imports
from Iran allow Yerevan to mitigate the immediate impact of the temporary
suspension of Russian supplies.
Armenia already receives
Iranian gas under the existing “gas-for-electricity” arrangement. The ten-day
suspension of Russian supplies therefore increases the practical importance of
the Iranian direction for the country’s energy security.
At the same time, Armenia’s
ability to rapidly increase gas imports from Iran is constrained by existing
infrastructure. Earlier, Armenian Minister of Territorial Administration and
Infrastructure David Khudatyan stated that infrastructure capacity is one of
the main obstacles to significantly increasing imports of Iranian gas.
Iranian gas is used in
Armenia, among other purposes, to generate electricity, which is subsequently
exported to Iran. Therefore, expanding this mechanism depends not only on the
availability of gas but also on the capacity of the energy infrastructure of
both countries.
The temporary suspension of
Russian supplies comes amid statements by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan
on the need for further diversification of the gas market. On September 11,
Pashinyan said that the government intends to seek opportunities to obtain gas
from a second and third source, regardless of potential changes in gas prices.
According to Pashinyan, Yerevan views diversification as part of a broader
policy aimed at strengthening Armenia’s independence and statehood.
The prime minister has also
linked the prospects for diversification to regional infrastructure projects.
In particular, he has suggested the possibility of constructing a gas pipeline
through Armenia as part of the TRIPP – Trump Route for
International Peace and Prosperity project, which, according to
Pashinyan, could potentially generate transit revenues for Armenia.
The temporary suspension of
supplies does not in itself indicate a political conflict between Moscow and
Yerevan, as the stated reason for the interruption is scheduled maintenance
work on the Russian section of the gas transportation system. However, the
situation highlights Armenia’s continued dependence on the Russian energy
sector. Moscow also retains a key role in Armenia’s gas market through Gazprom
Armenia, while Russian gas remains the country’s primary imported energy
resource.
If the maintenance work is
completed as scheduled, Russian gas supplies are expected to resume after
September 25. Over the next ten days, the key challenge for Armenia’s energy
system will be to maintain stable supplies to consumers through the use of
domestic reserves and additional imports from Iran.
In the longer term, the
situation once again underscores Yerevan’s need to develop several independent
sources of gas supply. The ten-day suspension of Russian gas deliveries is
unlikely to trigger a gas crisis in Armenia, but it carries a broader strategic
significance: Yerevan is seeking to gradually reduce its dependence on its
dominant supplier and build a more diversified energy system.
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