The Russian Caucasus is entering a period of major instability. After decades of undisputed rule, the Kadyrov clan is rapidly losing its grip, shaking the very foundations of Moscow’s control over Chechnya and the wider region.

According to the Russian opposition project "We Can Explain", Ramzan Kadyrov’s downfall accelerated following the launch of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. The myth of the "fearless Kadyrovites" has collapsed into farce: instead of shining on the battlefield, Chechen forces proved utterly ineffective, becoming the subject of ridicule both in Ukraine and across Russia.

The collapse of Kadyrov’s image coincided with his deteriorating health. His physical decline has deepened internal rifts and eroded the fear that once cemented his authority. Rumors swirl in Grozny about preparations for escape — the Kadyrov clan is allegedly funneling billions of dollars into the United Arab Emirates, where they are said to be preparing a "backup airfield" for the family.

Meanwhile, relations between Kadyrov and Vladimir Putin have hit a deep crisis. A symbolic moment was Kadyrov’s failure to seize control of the major Russian e-commerce platform Wildberries — a defeat that publicly exposed his weakened influence within the Kremlin.

At the same time, Chechnya and the entire North Caucasus are boiling over. Religious youth, disillusioned with imposed anti-Islamic policies, openly label the "Kadyrovites" as occupying forces and dream of a united Caucasus free from Moscow’s control. Rebellious sentiments are gaining momentum rapidly, threatening to ignite a new wave of major upheaval.

The collapse of Kadyrov’s regime, analysts say, could trigger large-scale destabilization not just in Chechnya, but across the entire Russian Caucasus — a region that has long simmered under the weight of centralization and corruption.

The Caucasus stands once again at the threshold of change. And this time — it may be change that Moscow cannot contain.

#RUSSIA

#CAUCASUS

28.04.2025 09:16