How Realistic Is Turkish-Russian Mediation in Karabakh Settlement?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proposed to the head of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to create a joint working group to resolve the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. This was reported by a number of Turkish media outlets with reference to diplomatic sources in Ankara.

The proposal is said to have been communicated in a telephone conversation on 7 November.

According to the same sources, work in this format may begin in the coming days and a new platform for negotiations may appear - an alternative to the OSCE Minsk Group.

The same sources report that after the victory in Shusha, Azerbaijan will stop the offensive to start negotiations. Armenia, in turn, will gradually liberate the territories remaining under occupation.

Ankara and Moscow have not yet commented on these reports, although a number of Western media outlets have already confirmed the existence of such a plan.

Ex-Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Tofig Zulfugarov, commenting on the idea of creating a joint Turkish-Russian working group to Turan, noted that the OSCE and its Minsk Group did not cope with the tasks assigned to it. Moreover, this structure does not enjoy authority either in Azerbaijan or Armenia.

In addition, the interaction between Ankara and Moscow can be useful not only for the formation of a new platform for negotiations, but also for the creation of verification mechanisms (verification and enforcement of the agreements reached).

Turkey and Russia already have such experience of cooperation in Syria within the framework of the "Astana format". They have formed not only a platform for negotiations, but also successfully interact, providing joint patrols, etc.

"Azerbaijan would only be glad if a Turkish-Russian group is created," Zulfugarov said.

Its creation is also in the interests of Armenia in conditions when the US is busy with other issues, and France's opportunities to influence the situation in Karabakh are minimal.

"Russia and Turkey, being regional powers, can closely interact in the Karabakh settlement, especially since they have experience of cooperation in solving such problems," Zulfgugarov said. At the same time, he noted that it is too early to talk about the implementation of this plan, since Armenia does not send impulses to readiness for a political settlement.