The death of Ali Larijani has become one of the key events in the ongoing crisis surrounding Iran and has sharply altered the balance of power within the country, amplifying the destabilizing effects already underway. Larijani was killed on March 17, in the midst of a military escalation, at a time when he was effectively considered one of the central figures of the governing system — especially following the weakening or departure of other senior officials.

The context of this event is critically important: by early 2026, Iran was already in a deep crisis, linked to military strikes, internal tensions, and challenges regarding the succession of power. Larijani was seen not merely as an experienced politician, but as a possible “operational center” of the system — a person capable of coordinating decisions under conditions of war and partial paralysis of the power vertical. His elimination effectively intensified the “decapitation” effect on the system, as multiple key figures responsible for security and strategic decisions were simultaneously removed.

Analysts note that in such authoritarian models, power is often concentrated around a narrow circle of individuals, and their simultaneous loss does not lead to a smooth transfer of authority, but to fragmentation of governance. In Iran’s case, according to available information, the system attempted to prepare for this scenario in advance — creating several decision-making centers to maintain governability even after the removal of individual leaders. Nevertheless, the death of figures like Larijani still reduces the efficiency of this model and increases the risk of competition among elite groups.

Another important aspect is the question of succession. Formally, Iran has a complex mechanism for the transfer of power, but in reality, it heavily depends on informal agreements within the elite. After the death of key figures, less experienced or less legitimate actors — so-called “third-tier” players — may come to power. This raises the likelihood of mistakes, uncoordinated decisions, and even internal power struggles.

At the same time, despite the apparent vulnerability of the regime, the scenario of immediate destabilization or revolution is not guaranteed. Experts note that the Iranian opposition suffers from a lack of clear structure and coordination: protests in the country have historically been massive but disorganized. This means that even in conditions of maximum state weakness, the protest potential cannot always be converted into political change.

On the other hand, the very logic of conflict may work in favor of the authorities. External threats traditionally consolidate parts of society, and the death of figures like Larijani can be used as a mobilization factor, reinforcing rhetoric of resistance and creating the image of a “victim of aggression”. In this sense, the effect of his death extends beyond domestic politics and begins to operate on the international stage, intensifying anti-Western sentiment in the region.

 

Thus, the assassination of Larijani is a blow to Iran’s governing mechanism at a critical moment. It heightens uncertainty, complicates the decision-making process, and simultaneously raises the stakes both domestically and in regional confrontations. In the short term, this leads to systemic chaos, and in the long term, it may either accelerate transformation or, conversely, lead to even greater consolidation of power around security structures.

#IRAN

18.03.2026 05:58