A few days ago, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced a six-month reduction in the duration of mandatory military service in Armenia – to 1 year and 6 months. This decision will take effect on January 1, 2026, six months earlier than originally planned under the Ministry of Defense’s legislative initiative. Prior to this, in September, the government reduced next year’s defense budget by more than 15%, to $1.5 billion. The official explanation was a preliminary agreement signed with Azerbaijan in Washington in August, which, according to the authorities, marked the beginning of a “new era of peace” in the South Caucasus.

The overarching narrative of the authorities is to convince both domestic and international audiences that peace is now an irreversible reality and that armed conflicts are a thing of the past.

However, the reduction in the size of the army and defense spending indicates a much deeper shift in state policy regarding the armed forces. According to data from the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC), in 2020 Armenia ranked second in the world in terms of militarization (after Israel) and first in Europe – with defense spending accounting for about 6.5% of GDP. There had long been a broad public consensus that the army was the true guarantor of peace.

Now the situation is changing. Despite recent large-scale arms purchases and the expansion of military cooperation with various power centers, an analysis of the government’s actions to reform the army shows that Armenia is moving toward demilitarization and a reduction in the army’s role in the country’s socio-political life. The following examines the political, military, and regional aspects of this process, as well as its causes, risks, and possible consequences.

Political aspect

For thirty years, Armenian society endured significant hardships under the belief that all possible resources were being directed toward national defense and border security. It was widely believed that, despite Azerbaijan’s military superiority, the Armenian army – through its training and dedication – would be able to ensure a worthy defense. However, the war lasted only 44 days, and the army was completely unprepared for the scale and nature of Azerbaijan’s military operations.

The high military command – generals who for years had enjoyed the privileges of service and publicly declared their readiness to “crush the enemy” – demonstrated complete incompetence, failing to manage the combat situation. Much of the purchased weaponry proved largely useless. This happened in a highly militarized state that had spent enormous resources and had three decades to prepare. As a result, many members of the military elite were arrested after the war and are currently under investigation on various charges.

The fiasco of the 44-day war forced Armenia’s political leadership to reconsider the army’s role in ensuring national security, assigning it a less central place. Prime Minister Pashinyan even stated that too much responsibility for state security had been placed on the shoulders of soldiers.

Thus, even if the decision to shorten military service appears to be a temporary measure or an electoral maneuver ahead of parliamentary elections, at a deeper level it reflects the government’s view of the regional balance of power. The significance of this moment lies in the fact that through this step, the ruling team seeks to psychologically persuade Armenian society of the reality of peace with Azerbaijan – even though most citizens still view this with skepticism.

Military aspect

From a military perspective, the reduction in service time appears premature and inconsistent with Armenia’s defense needs. A peace treaty with Azerbaijan has not yet been signed; there is only a preliminary agreement, and the timing of border demarcation and delimitation remains unclear, with numerous disputed sections still unresolved.

It is not yet clear how the resulting personnel gaps will be compensated. Given the reduction in the defense budget, a large-scale recruitment of contract soldiers is unlikely to fully make up for the shortfall. The General Staff will likely rely increasingly on reserve training cycles to fill the shortage of personnel on the front lines.

Regional aspect

By announcing a reduction in defense spending and service duration immediately after the preliminary signing of the Washington documents, Armenia is sending a clear signal to regional power centers – primarily Azerbaijan and Turkey – about its peaceful intentions.

Throughout the three-decade-long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, as the guarantor of Artsakh’s security, relied on military force to defend the population’s right to self-determination. Through demilitarization, the current Armenian leadership is effectively declaring that it no longer pursues revanchist or offensive goals toward its former adversary.

Notably, Azerbaijan does not share this agenda. Despite economic challenges, it continues to maintain a high level of defense spending – over $5 billion annually – and plans only a modest reduction (8.6%) for 2026-2030. Given that Azerbaijan has already achieved its main strategic objective, such a budget reflects broader hegemonic ambitions in the South Caucasus.

The South Caucasus remains a complex region where the interests of competing power centers intersect. It will continue to be a zone of tension and conflict, and Armenia cannot remain on the sidelines. In this context, a modern and professional army remains one of the key instruments for protecting national interests and values. The Armenian Armed Forces are currently undergoing both conceptual and organizational transformation.

Specialist in politico-military and security affairs,

Hovhannes Vardanyan

#ARMENIA

29.10.2025 08:11