The law passed by the State Duma imposing fines for searching extremist content online, including attempts to bypass restrictions via VPNs, marks a transition to a qualitatively new model of digital control. Whereas previously Russian authorities mainly prosecuted publications, comments, and reposts, now mere curiosity becomes punishable. This is a clear signal that Russia is moving toward a form of “preemptive control of thought,” where even seeking alternative information is viewed as a potential threat to the state.

Amid the prolonged war with Ukraine, the Kremlin is trying to eliminate any leaks about real losses, military failures, and corruption scandals. According to opposition sources, the number of search queries related to military topics in the Russian internet has increased three to four times in recent months. This means Russians are increasingly looking for ways to access alternative information.

Persecuting users for searching is impossible without advanced monitoring systems. In recent years, Russia has actively developed the SORM-3 (System for Operative Investigative Activities), which enables security services to analyze search queries and internet traffic in real time. The new law is likely a logical continuation of this technological infrastructure.

The fine of about $65 may seem small, but the goal is not financial pressure. The goal is to intimidate and create a chilling effect – a state of self-censorship where people will stop even being curious about alternative viewpoints.

Many will stop asking even neutral questions in search engines if they relate to politics, the military, or religion. Denunciations may increase, with citizens accusing one another of making “wrong” searches, further fueling an atmosphere of mutual distrust. Young people and active internet users are likely to migrate en masse to the Darknet and closed chat groups, creating a new “shadow audience”.

Companies will be forced to implement systems to filter and store data on employees’ search queries to avoid fines. Foreign IT companies may accelerate their exit from the Russian market, fearing legal risks and reputational damage.

Thus, tightening control may backfire. China’s experience shows that excessively harsh censorship can provoke even greater interest in banned content and the emergence of underground media. Over time, the Russian internet could evolve into an equivalent of China’s “Great Firewall,” but without China’s technological and economic stability, leading to chaotic disruptions and a decline in trust in government services.

China relies on “positive control” by actively promoting domestic alternatives to Western services (WeChat, Weibo), effectively replacing banned platforms. Russia, by contrast, lacks full-fledged alternatives, and its domestic services suffer from low public trust. Iran has long practiced mass internet shutdowns during protests. Russia appears to be moving in the same direction, as evidenced by increasingly frequent localized internet blackouts under the pretext of “countering drone attacks”. Thus, Russia is combining both the Chinese and Iranian models, but with much weaker infrastructure and high levels of corruption, making its control system potentially more fragile.

In the coming months, we can expect an expanded list of “extremist” search queries and the first high-profile prosecutions. In the long run, such measures may push activists to consolidate and create new underground digital networks. There is also a high likelihood of the emergence of “two internets”: an official one, fully controlled by the state, and a shadow one, where independent journalism and civic activism will concentrate.

The new law is not just another repressive measure but a clear signal of Russia’s transition to a new level of digital authoritarianism. The Kremlin is showing that it is ready to control not only people’s actions but also their very thoughts. The only question is whether this model can withstand the pressure of economics, technology, and a society increasingly retreating into the shadows.

Expert Group CCBS

#ANALYSIS

#RUSSIA

21.07.2025 03:27