The meeting of the foreign ministers of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow was of a declarative nature. As a result, a statement was adopted, not an agreement. Therefore, one should not expect anything serious from such a meeting. The well-known Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer said this in an interview with Turan.

“For the ceasefire to take effect, the agreement must be signed by the military, as it was in 2016. In addition, the parties must have a political desire to cease fire, which, apparently, does not exist, and even the exchange of bodies of those killed does not take place.

In this case, both Azerbaijan and Armenia simply showed politeness to Putin, responding to his appeal, and came to Moscow, "Felgenhauer said. When asked what is Moscow's strategy regarding the Karabakh conflict, the expert answered that it simply does not exist. “Moscow does not want to take one side or the other, so it is watching. Russia's desire is to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus, to restore a kind of "Russian world". For this reason, she will not openly support one of the parties.

At the same time, there are unconfirmed reports about the presence of so-called mercenaries from the Wagner group in the conflict zone and about the supply of weapons to Armenia.

Direct military involvement of Turkey in hostilities would become a red line for Russia, and then the situation may change,” the expert said.

When asked how he views the missile strike on Ganja, Felgenhauer said that international law prohibits the use of R-17 missiles or Scud against civilians. These missiles are designed to destroy military targets. “If it comes to court, the Armenians will probably say that they were aiming at a military facility, and the missile has a spread of one kilometer and they missed,” the expert noted.

When asked whether it is possible to trace technically, where the rocket was launched from, Felgenhauer said that Azerbaijan should have the appropriate technical means in the form of radars. “I don't know if Azerbaijan has them, but Moscow and Washington definitely have them and they know exactly where the rocket came from. However, as a rule, neither Washington nor Moscow shares such data. If a missile was fired from Armenia, this is one situation, if from Karabakh, it is another,” the expert noted.

Could Azerbaijan's air defense systems intercept this missile? To this question, the expert replied that Azerbaijan has S-300 systems which  should have done it. However, the S-300 is designed to destroy aircraft, not missiles. As far as we know, Azerbaijan has Israeli air defense systems and they were supposed to intercept, he added.

When asked how he predicts the ongoing hostilities, Felgenhauer found it difficult to answer, saying that most likely the fighting will continue in the south and north of Karabakh. “It is difficult to say something concretely, but one thing is clear - Azerbaijan is stronger and has more resources,” he concluded.

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Source  -  Turan

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13.10.2020 15:14